and also...
Aug. 8th, 2008 11:37 pmWhat the fuck is all this South Ossetia business? Why have I been totally blindsided by surprise at this situation? Is there anyone on my friends list who knows about the region and saw this coming? What the hell's going on?
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Date: 2008-08-08 10:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 10:49 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 10:50 pm (UTC)(sorry about the "lacks subtlety" comment earlier, btw - I didn't realise your expertise was quite so extensive, but I shouldn't have presumed it wasn't. :o) )
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Date: 2008-08-08 10:53 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 10:55 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 11:00 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 11:07 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 11:08 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-08 11:11 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2008-08-09 06:47 pm (UTC)(This is similar to Serbian worries about Kosovo vis-a-vis Albania; the difference is that the Albanian government is not coherent, powerful or talented enough to take ruthless military advantage of the situation and get away with it; whereas the situation in Chechenya shows that the Russians almost certainly are.)
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Date: 2008-08-10 05:33 pm (UTC)The Georgian government has looked towards NATO as a counterweight to the Russians. Recently, a carrot of talks towards maybe starting a process which would lead to eventual membership was offered.
Having a couple of renegade provinces (as the Georgian government sees it) is of course a major impediment to the NATO-membership process, so the Georgian president seems to have assumed that the overtures made so far amount to a guarantee that if Georgia made attempts to bring South Ossetia into line then this would be supported or tacitly approved of by NATO, who would therefore not allow the Russians to retaliate.
This appears to have been something of a miscalculation.