After Glasgow East...

[ajva]

It might be late, I might have spent a bizarre day drinking alcohol with three different social groups of people in three different places, but if you'll forgive me for venturing an opinion just before I retire to bed, as is the proper thing to do at this time of night, here's my thought:...

The scale of the next general election defeat for Labour/win for Cameron is going to be greater than Blair's victory in 1997.

The next general election will happen in 2010, as Gordon Brown pushes his calendar to the wire, but unfortunately for him the economic downturn will still be going on then, and badly, so he won't be able to avoid it being an issue. Our economy will be in utter crisis, with the unions (perfectly understandably) crying blue murder about wage levels, unemployment will shoot through the roof, and then the Tories will come in and rein back public spending like there's no tomorrow. Nine years (it could take 14-18) later the economy will be in better shape and people will be unutterably pissed off with the social right-wing unfairness of the Tories, and if Labour's found an inspirational leader by then there's a chance they might get back in. If not, there's still a chance we might get a charismatic leader from the LibDem side.

Meanwhile, the Scots will still be bickering about independence, but somehow will have found that consensus politics suits them regardless, and will be busy quietly building a modern 21st Century country while nobody else in the UK notices.

What do you think?

Comments

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

I think I'm a raging flag-waving loonie leftie blood-red socialist, meaning: I really, really, really wish you weren't right. Only, you probably are...

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

Labour have shot themselves in the foot, and it's painful to see. My allegiance to them these days is mostly along the lines of 'better the fuckers you know', mixed in with a bit of 'the bastards who used to agree with me might be better than the ones who never have and never will', not to mention a healthy dollop of 'At Least They Aren't Tories'.

[ajva.livejournal.com]

Let's all fucking move to Scotland.

Not 'cos I'm Scottish, you understand - just because they seem to be damn well sorting their shit out. When I was your age (blah blah AWOOGA old person talking), it was a lost cause. Not any more...

[alan1957.livejournal.com]

I certainly agree with the fact of, and the scale of the next Tory victory (although I think the election will happen a bit earlier than you suppose). Indeed the size of the majority will certainly lead to eight years (at least) of Tory rule. What I hope for, however, is that the scale of New Labour's defeat will utterly destroy the Labour Party as it stands and that a new party of the Left will emerge...that's what I hope for anyway.

[ms-katonic.livejournal.com]

Alas, I think you're right.

And it's only now I'm giving serious thought to applying to Scottish universities and/or NHS employers in Scotland...

[friend-of-tofu.livejournal.com]

Except the best way the Tories could now rein in public spending further than Labour have, would be to get rid of lots of private contractors in the public service and continue underpaying public servants to do the same job. But can you see the Tories doing that?

I suspect they'll win, but I doubt it'll be bigger than Blair's landslide, unless people get un-dissillusioned a lot quicker.

[lovelybug.livejournal.com]

What do you think about the legacy of PFI? Will anyone be able to rein back public spending if a lot of the commitments to spending have already been made in advance to private companies?

I'm still not convinced it'll be a landslide, but might just be wishful thinking.

Sad to say...

[plumsbitch.livejournal.com]

This analysis strikes me as a pretty good one. I think the Con win will be a landslide, and will give them the same kind of mandate that Labour had in 1997. Brrrr. And from what little i know about Scottish politics, and the shifts happening there, Scotland is I suspect on its way in a way that England/the wider UK clearly aren't.

Hmm. I have Scottish family, now might be the time to look them up. ;-)

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

It'll be independent within twenty years. The Tories will try and reign in the Scottish councils because that's what they *always* do, they *always* remove personal freedoms of individual constituencies, and the Scots will go 'fuck this' and that'll be that.

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

a new party of the Left will emerge

And what if they're no better than the last lot? I have a horrible feeling that it's not *just* that all the parties are drifting towards each other, it's also that The Voting Masses don't want the proper Left. That's depressing and I hate it, but I suspect it's true.

Real socialists aren't going to get voted in, not unless they pretend to be fake ones first. (I had some vague hope that this was what Gordon Brown was doing, though alas it does not seem to be the case).

[alan1957.livejournal.com]

'Real socialists aren't going to get voted in...'

I couldn't agree more! There's only one route to Socialism and it has nothing to do with a ballot box.

[seph-hazard.livejournal.com]

I'm not so sure about that. I can see the appeal of the idea, but I don't think socialism can work without democracy. It's not socialism if it's not voted. Socialism is all about the power of the people, putting the reins in the hands of the proles, and I don't think that objective can be achieved without a fair and democratic public vote. You can do communism without a vote, but for some reason that never works either...

Trotskyism 101

[alan1957.livejournal.com]

I don't want to fill up someone else's post with a long red rant but...I believe that you are confusing Socialism with a social democracy that's pretty much dead in the water.

'...I don't think socialism can work without democracy.'
But what do you mean by 'democracy'? Parliamentary democracy? Every four or five years a proportion of the population can 'choose' between two or three different factions representing (slightly) different ways of maintaining the status quo. And if, by rare chance, a government commited to more radical reform is elected then it is removed. Either by bloody violence, as in Chile or by a more 'liberal', British constitutional coup such as the removal of the Australian PM in 1975 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1975_Australian_constitutional_crisis).

'...a fair and democratic public vote.'
I lived through both of the above events, so you'll forgive me if I have ZERO faith in bourgois 'democracy'...and the possibility of 'a fair and democratic public vote'.

'You can do communism without a vote, but for some reason that never works either...'
Communism is a future world system which could only be achieved after the entire world (with no exceptions) had been Socialist for several/many generations. And Socialism is a World system; it cannot exist alongside Capitalism, and Socialism is not possible in any single country or even group of nations. No nation has ever been Socialist, let alone Communist.

[ajva.livejournal.com]

You make a very intelligent point, in my opinion. I think PFI is the worst thing they've done in terms of national finances; it strikes me as similar to someone putting the rebuilding of their house on a credit card that doesn't need paying for 20 years, but the interest keeps building. It's a huge betrayal both of socialism per se and of the future people of this country. We'll all have to pay for it over the next few decades, and even though it's a boring, obscure piece of the public finances, we'll all suffer for it in terms of future governments' public spending (pensions, benefits, etc.). A tragedy, all because of our current politicians' short-term thinking. This is why I think Gordon Brown has been a disaster (even when Blair was PM, it was Brown's doing, this). I wouldn't call myself a socialist - I consider myself slightly left of centre, but not specifically hard left - but Brown isn't a socialist either, despite his pose; he's clever and educated enough to know what he was doing, and he still did it. I am very disappointed.

[lovelybug.livejournal.com]

Absolutely. I agree totally. Thanks for the reply!

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Forget betrayal of socialism, it's just sheer bloody stupidity and ought to be derided from right across the political spectrum.

Moving to Scotland

[jhg.livejournal.com]

I may well consider it.

I wonder, though, if things in Scotland would be quite so cushy if they were independent of the rest of the UK.