After Glasgow East...

[ajva]

It might be late, I might have spent a bizarre day drinking alcohol with three different social groups of people in three different places, but if you'll forgive me for venturing an opinion just before I retire to bed, as is the proper thing to do at this time of night, here's my thought:...

The scale of the next general election defeat for Labour/win for Cameron is going to be greater than Blair's victory in 1997.

The next general election will happen in 2010, as Gordon Brown pushes his calendar to the wire, but unfortunately for him the economic downturn will still be going on then, and badly, so he won't be able to avoid it being an issue. Our economy will be in utter crisis, with the unions (perfectly understandably) crying blue murder about wage levels, unemployment will shoot through the roof, and then the Tories will come in and rein back public spending like there's no tomorrow. Nine years (it could take 14-18) later the economy will be in better shape and people will be unutterably pissed off with the social right-wing unfairness of the Tories, and if Labour's found an inspirational leader by then there's a chance they might get back in. If not, there's still a chance we might get a charismatic leader from the LibDem side.

Meanwhile, the Scots will still be bickering about independence, but somehow will have found that consensus politics suits them regardless, and will be busy quietly building a modern 21st Century country while nobody else in the UK notices.

What do you think?

Comments

[lovelybug.livejournal.com]

What do you think about the legacy of PFI? Will anyone be able to rein back public spending if a lot of the commitments to spending have already been made in advance to private companies?

I'm still not convinced it'll be a landslide, but might just be wishful thinking.

[ajva.livejournal.com]

You make a very intelligent point, in my opinion. I think PFI is the worst thing they've done in terms of national finances; it strikes me as similar to someone putting the rebuilding of their house on a credit card that doesn't need paying for 20 years, but the interest keeps building. It's a huge betrayal both of socialism per se and of the future people of this country. We'll all have to pay for it over the next few decades, and even though it's a boring, obscure piece of the public finances, we'll all suffer for it in terms of future governments' public spending (pensions, benefits, etc.). A tragedy, all because of our current politicians' short-term thinking. This is why I think Gordon Brown has been a disaster (even when Blair was PM, it was Brown's doing, this). I wouldn't call myself a socialist - I consider myself slightly left of centre, but not specifically hard left - but Brown isn't a socialist either, despite his pose; he's clever and educated enough to know what he was doing, and he still did it. I am very disappointed.

[lovelybug.livejournal.com]

Absolutely. I agree totally. Thanks for the reply!

[jhg.livejournal.com]

Forget betrayal of socialism, it's just sheer bloody stupidity and ought to be derided from right across the political spectrum.