Two things...

[ajva]

...that could possibly happen in the medium-to-long term, if it's confirmed that Dubya's been re-elected:

1) Hilary Clinton elected as first female president of the US in 2008.

or possibly

2) Continued Republican governments see US deficits increase to such an extent that they eventually undermine the economic basis for US's status as a world superpower, and American influence abroad wanes (this one to take 20 to 40 years).

Discuss...

Comments

[languid.livejournal.com]

1) Hillary Clinton will never get elected as she's hated as much by the right as her husband was and as much as Bush is by the left. The next Democrat to be elected will have to appeal to the moderate conservatives as well as the left (John Edwards, perhaps). Otherwise, the Republicans will nominate fundamentalist after fundamentalist to beat 'the liberal/communist scourge' who will let al-Qaeda drop a nuclear bomb on New York! (A mixture of sarcasm and exasperation, there).

2) Yes. And it will serve them right. The timing could be interesting, considering China will be the second biggest power in the world by then.

[countess-sophia.livejournal.com]

The financial crisis of the US isn't so far away. The current levels of soveriegn debt combined with a vast and growing trade deficit simply cannot be supported into the medium term. On the former, consider that the Fed was forced to reassure a sceptical audience of foreign bankers that the treasury would not default its soverign debt paper that's coming up to maturity (bonds they cannot pay and have to borrow more to clear). That is not a good sign for an empire. Add the plunging value of the dollar and international 'disquiet' about the policies being pursued by the administration and US debt looks an increasingly unattractive choice for investors. Bush's warmongering and internal policies are almost entirely funded by debt. If he cannot float loans, his ability to continue either is severely limited. The situation could be improved, but it would require major reforms to the tax system that Bush just isn't going to do. Fixing the latter problem will also require a large degree of very serious restructing of the US economy that I suspect that Bush and his supporters are unwilling accept.

Paul Kennedy's old analysis of the problems of the Spanish Empire in the late 16th-17th century is highly pertinent to the situation that the US currently finds itself in.

When it comes to warmaking, apart from not having the money, Bush doesn't have the troops for even his present military ventures, and to do more he will have to institute the draft (he may have to anyway). That'll be hard toget through even a Republican Congress as many legislators will be aware that signing it is almost certainly political suicide. The consequences of a draft and casualties resulting from it in the country and hard to calculate, but they won't be good.

I agree with languid that the US will never elct H. Clinton as president. Too many on the right in the US view her with a quite fanatical hatred which makes her a sure loser at the polls. The reason for strength of this hatred has never been very clear to me.

Soph x

[ajva.livejournal.com]

Excellent post - thank you. Now I feel I must read up on the old Spanish Empire. Always something new to learn, eh? :o)

Number One - for how long?

[countess-sophia.livejournal.com]

Spain in the 16th century was super-power number one, in terms of strategic reach, wealth and military might. However, the cost of the military burdens grew, partly from defending the empire, partly from incredibly long ideological wars such as that with England, the intervention in France and the Holy Roman Empire, and especially the running sore of the 70 year war of attrition in the Netherlands against the Dutch.

Meanwhile, as the budget spiralled out of control and debt grew, tax revenues plunged. The economy of the homeland, particularly Castille, collapsed due to a number of complex factors, but the tax burden was primarily on Castille, because the king was politically unable to tax the other states such as Aragon, nor would he tax the nobles or the sheep farming corporations (the main industry). As a result the tax burden on the small farmers, merchants and middle class soared, driving more and more into bankruptcy, making the economic situation worse.

Of course the windfall of the loot from South America helped, allowing the Spanish to carry on for far longer than otherwise, but it was also a hindrance in that it caused massive inflation and allowed the government to ignore the problems until they had gone far beyond a solution. The Spanish government pretended the problems didn't exist and carried on regardless.

The result of all this was that the heart was eaten out of the Spanish Empire and 40 years after the Armada it was a mere shell.

The US I think finds itself in a similar situation: widely hated and feared (as the Spanish were), with uncontrollable debt, increasing military activities (including ideological wars), a regressive taxation system by which many of those most able to pay contribute little or nothing, and an arrogant government unwilling to recognise reality or to put in reforms. There is another parallel in the rising obscurantism and anti-humanist thought that is currently afflicting large sections of the US polity. Spain too saw this, to its great detriment.

Soph x

[lovingboth]

She could probably win the Democratic nomination, but it'd be very risky choice for the party because of just how much she's loathed by the right. She'd be easy to run against too, and I wonder who the Republicans are going to pick next time.

It's beginning to look like the US is going the way of Israel - completely split down the middle on the fundamental approach.

I think one big mistake Kerry make was to throw away the "it's the economy, stupid" sign from Clinton's first presidential campaign.

What would result in a quicker economic disaster that'd do for the Republicans what Black Wedneday did for the Tories would be something like a mega earthquake in Tokyo (overdue) or San Francisco / Los Angeles (overdue).

[blakeshell.livejournal.com]

did not have time to read all of sophs post but she is right. It may be worse than you think. Still these things are inherently difficult to perdict.

[brelson.livejournal.com]

For what it's worth, I also agree that the financial crisis in the US could come more quickly than one might reasonably expect. countess_sophia's analysis is spot on, and I'd venture to add that an exogenuous shock to the American economy (in particular, another attack on the scale of 9/11) could lead to an even speedier deterioration of America's financial situation.

As for Hillary being unelectable - I'm not totally sure I agree. We know, for one, that the American public is easy to manipulate, and so over the course of the next four years an aggressive media campaign on her behalf could turn things around. In fact, the shrill hatred of America's right could even work in her favour. Also, the events of the next four years could lead to a change in America's political climate which could also work in her favour. I wouldn't write her off completely.

[jhg.livejournal.com]

1) Hilary Clinton elected as first female president of the US in 2008.

I understand William Hill are already offering odds on her as the 8-1 favourite.


J